World Population, GDP per Capita, Fertility and Poverty to 2100

Author: PPBF / Manus AI  |  Date: May 11, 2026  |  Scope: Global population to 2100, GDP per capita by country, fertility trends, and global poverty.

Executive Summary

The global population is expected to keep growing for several decades, but the pace of growth is slowing markedly. Based on UN World Population Prospects 2024, the world population is estimated at roughly 8.16 billion in 2024, 9.66 billion in 2050, a peak of about 10.29 billion around 2084, and then a slight decline to roughly 10.18 billion in 2100. The core message is not that humanity suddenly stops growing, but that global fertility is structurally declining. Total fertility fell from about 4.7 children per woman in 1960 to 2.25 in 2023, and is projected at approximately 2.10 in 2050 and 1.84 in 2100.

The distribution of growth is at least as important as the global total. Africa grows from approximately 1.51 billion people in 2024 to 3.81 billion in 2100, while Asia peaks around mid-century and then declines. Europe shrinks in absolute terms, and Latin America also reaches a peak followed by decline.

Economic development is strongly associated with declining fertility. The correlation between log10(PPP GDP per capita) and fertility is approximately -0.82. For poverty, the picture is nuanced: in the OWID/World Bank series using the $3 per day line, the share fell from about 43.4% in 1990 to 10.6% in 2023 and a nowcast of 10.0% in 2026. The World Bank warns that under current trends 622 million people would still be extremely poor in 2030.

Data Sources and Method

This study primarily uses authoritative international datasets. For population and fertility, it uses UN World Population Prospects 2024, accessed through Our World in Data. For GDP per capita, the World Bank indicators NY.GDP.PCAP.CD (nominal) and NY.GDP.PCAP.PP.CD (PPP) were used. The IMF DataMapper from the World Economic Outlook April 2026 was used as an additional benchmark.

Definition. Nominal GDP per capita measures the monetary value of production per person at market exchange rates and current prices. PPP GDP per capita corrects for differences in local price levels and is therefore generally more suitable for comparing living standards across countries.

1. Expected Development of the World Population to 2100

The UN projection shows a clear transition from rapid expansion toward stabilisation. Between 2024 and 2050, the population still grows by roughly 1.50 billion people, but between 2050 and the peak in 2084 it grows by only about 0.62 billion. After that, growth turns negative. This pattern is typical of the final stage of the global demographic transition.

The regional decomposition shows that the global projection is mainly a story of African growth versus Asian stabilisation and later decline. Africa grows by approximately 2.30 billion people between 2024 and 2100. Asia remains the largest region in absolute terms, but declines from about 4.81 billion in 2024 to 4.61 billion in 2100 after a peak around mid-century.

2. Fertility and the Demographic Transition

The key demographic variable behind the slowdown is the total fertility rate. The world as a whole is approaching the replacement level of approximately 2.1 children per woman and is projected to move below it thereafter. High-income countries have often been below replacement level for a long time; middle-income countries such as China, Brazil, Mexico and Thailand also have low or declining fertility; low-income countries, especially in Sub-Saharan Africa, remain higher on average but also show a downward trend.

The relationship with economic development is visible in the country comparison. Lower income levels are generally associated with higher fertility, while high-income countries are almost everywhere below replacement level. The correlation in the country-level data used here is strongly negative (r = -0.82), but the interpretation must remain structural: income operates through education, health, urban labour markets, female labour-force participation, child mortality, pension expectations and access to reproductive healthcare.

3. GDP per Capita by Country: Nominal versus PPP

GDP per capita differs substantially depending on the measure used. Nominal GDP per capita is especially sensitive to exchange rates and is relevant for international financial purchasing power. PPP GDP per capita corrects for local prices and usually provides a more realistic picture of domestic living standards. PPP values are therefore much higher than nominal values in many lower- and middle-income countries.

The IMF DataMapper reports a 2026 world average of about $15.68 thousand nominal GDP per capita and $27.65 thousand PPP GDP per capita. For advanced economies, the IMF gives approximately $66.18 thousand nominal and $77.84 thousand PPP; for emerging and developing economies approximately $7.56 thousand nominal and $19.59 thousand PPP.

4. Is Poverty Increasing or Decreasing?

Over the long term, the conclusion is clear: poverty has declined sharply as a share of the world population. In the $3/day series, the share falls from 43.4% in 1990 to 10.6% in 2023 and 10.0% in 2026. The absolute number of people below this line also fell strongly, from approximately 2.31 billion in 1990 to approximately 828 million in 2026.

The World Bank warns, however, that the current trend is insufficient for the international poverty target. In the Poverty, Prosperity and Planet Report 2024, the World Bank states that nearly 700 million people, or 8.5% of the world population, live below the older $2.15 line, while about 3.5 billion people, or 44%, live below the $6.85 line. Under the trend at the time, 622 million people would still live in extreme poverty in 2030.

5. Combined Interpretation: Economy, Births and Poverty

The question of whether economic growth moderates population growth can be answered affirmatively, but with nuance. A growing economy does not automatically reduce births, but economic development typically activates several mechanisms that lower fertility. Once child mortality falls, education rises and women gain access to labour markets and reproductive healthcare, both desired and realised family size tend to fall.

The country comparison shows that high-income countries have very low fertility on average. Over time this creates new economic challenges: population ageing, tight labour markets, higher healthcare and pension burdens, and possibly lower potential growth. For low-income countries, the challenge is different: they need to reach the demographic-dividend phase through education, healthcare, employment and productivity growth before rapid population growth overwhelms public services.

Poverty is therefore linked to both dimensions. High fertility in very poor countries can make it harder for income per capita to rise because education, healthcare and infrastructure must be spread across more children. The crucial variable is not population growth by itself, but productivity growth per person, the quality of institutions and the degree to which growth is inclusive.

6. Scenarios and Uncertainties to 2100

Projections to 2100 are not forecasts in the strict sense, but conditional estimates. The largest uncertainties concern fertility, migration, mortality, climate impacts, conflicts, pandemics, technological change and the distribution of economic growth.

Conclusion

The world is moving toward a demographic peak in the final quarter of the twenty-first century. The most likely development according to the UN medium variant is continued growth to about 10.3 billion around 2084, followed by slight decline toward 2100. This development is mainly driven by declining births as economic and social development advances.

GDP per capita remains highly unequal. Nominal rankings emphasise financial centres and exchange-rate effects; PPP rankings are better for living standards. For the largest countries, PPP is often much higher than the nominal value, especially in large middle-income countries such as India, Indonesia, Nigeria and Bangladesh.

Poverty has declined sharply historically and is more likely to continue falling as a share of the world population than to rise. Nevertheless, the pace is insufficient to meet international targets. The central conclusion is therefore: the world is becoming demographically older and economically richer on average, but whether poverty falls substantially further depends on productivity growth, stability, education, health and inclusive institutions in the poorest and fastest-growing countries.

References

1. United Nations, World Population Prospects 2024.
2. Our World in Data, Fertility rate with projections.
3. World Bank, GDP per capita (current US$).
4. World Bank, GDP per capita, PPP.
5. IMF, World Economic Outlook April 2026 DataMapper.
6. World Bank, Poverty, Prosperity and Planet Report 2024.
7. Our World in Data, Share of population in extreme poverty.